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| Voters lining up to enter a polling site in Asheville, North Carolina, October 2024 |
On November 8, 2024, in the immediate aftermath of our last presidential election, Foreign Affairs published an article by Larry Diamond, who is a Fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution. Diamond's article was titled, "Democracy Without America? - What Trump Means for Global Democratic Momentum." Here is an excerpt, on which I'd like to comment:
The rise of autocratic regimes across the world over the last decade and a half has put democrats on high alert. In the last year, successful efforts to beat back antidemocratic movements and governments have provided some indication that this protracted “democratic recession” could be reversed. But Trump’s victory has dealt a blow to these hopes. His triumph in the Electoral College and the popular vote leaves democratic friends and allies of the United States wondering: Will a Trump presidency demand more burden-sharing from them, or even abandon them altogether? And will the United States remain a liberal democracy, or will its institutions gradually erode beyond recognition or repair?
Early analysis of the election results suggests that Trump’s victory was more attributable to issues like the economy and immigration rather than an endorsement of his autocratic tendencies. And yet whatever the reason Americans may have had for supporting Trump, his campaign made it clear that he will be unencumbered by any global checks on his and his administration’s antidemocratic impulses. As has been the case in other backsliding democracies in the last decade, the defense of democratic norms in the United States will therefore depend on the actions of other leaders of government and society in Congress, state and local governments, the civil service, the armed forces and local police, business, civic institutions, and perhaps most of all, the courts. Their success or failure in upholding the Constitution and the rule of law will heavily determine global democracy’s outlook in the coming years (emphasis added).
Diamond is worried about the rise of autocracy in the United States, and specifically about what an autocratic government in the United States would mean for efforts to uphold democratic norms, worldwide. Certainly, this is a legitimate concern, but let's pay attention to Diamond's observation that "Trump's victory was more attributable to issues like the economy and immigration rather than an endorsement of his autocratic tendencies."
I think that this is indubitably true. Trump, essentially, "swept" the 2024 elections, at every level (though not by very much, as many commentators have noted). Republican control over both the House and the Senate may result in giving Mr. Trump, as the president, the ability to impose his priorities, politically. However, Diamond is certainly correct that giving Mr. Trump "autocratic" powers was not the reason that he swept the election.
The entire first section of The New York Times, on November 8th, was almost completely devoted to an analysis of "why" and "how" Trump had such a sweeping victory. If your subscription status, and The Times' paywall policies permit, I encourage you to revist and review The Times' political stories published on November 8th. There were LOTS of reasons provided for Trump's electoral victories (and they were multiple, not merely personal). Virtually all of the stories pointed out that voters were not happy with what the government was doing, and voted for a change in the policies with which they were dissatisfied.
No article suggested that our next president was put into office because the voters yearned for autocracy.
I tend to think that our next president (two days to go) does have "autocratic" tendencies, and the key question coming up, I think, is whether the people will acquiesce to autocracy, if that is what they are given by our new president.
Here is my own thought. "No." I don't think the citizens of the United States will allow the United States to turn into an "autocracy." I don't think so, but I obviously don't "know." The very fact that our next president "swept" the November 5th elections, last year, may well be the most powerful check on his autocratic tendencies. We know, now, that "democracy works." As I said shortly after the election last year, the fact that our president may be tempted to try to impose his own, personal ideas (not supported by the majority who voted for him) may well open up "an incredible opportunity to renew the vigor and effectiveness of democratic self-government in the United States."
I still think that, but whether that is what happens, or the opposite, is really going to depend on our individual and collective willingness to reengage in the practices that constitute "self-government," with the objective that a "government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth."
Two days to go. Stay tuned!
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