Pictured above is Allen C. Guelzo, an historian who specializes in the history of 19th-Century America. Guelzo serves as the Thomas W. Smith Distinguished Research Scholar and Director of the Initiative on Politics and Statesmanship in the James Madison Program at Princeton University.
As outlined in a "Weekend Interview" in The Wall Street Journal, Guelzo has come to believe that our the recent, 2024 presidential election will prove to be "tectonic."
[Guelzo] characterizes only three past elections as tectonic—1800, when Thomas Jefferson defeated John Adams and the Federalist Party quickly withered; 1860, when Lincoln’s victory established the Republicans as a major party that would dominate presidential politics for seven decades; and 1932, when Franklin D. Roosevelt trounced Herbert Hoover and cemented the modern Democratic coalition.
Guelzo is putting Donald Trump into some rather prestigious company - and even if Guelzo is right about the 2024 election turning out to be "tectonic," I don't think it's true that Mr. Trump shares many (if any) of the personal qualities for which Thomas Jefferson, Abraham Lincoln, or Franklin Roosevelt are rightly remembered and esteemed.
For Guelzo, a "tectonic" election is one one that marks a permanent structural change in the American electorate and political parties. Most of the column in The Journal speculates on why this may be a fitting description of the 2024 election. Let me confess, I am not persuaded, but I do want you to hear Guelzo's pitch:
The proposition that this is a tectonic election, [Guelzo] stresses, is only a hypothesis, and it can’t even begin to be tested for years.
The test consists of two parts: “First of all, there have to be repeated losses,” in this case for the Democrats. That rules out the elections of 2004, 2008, 2016 and 2020, all of which the losing party soon followed with comebacks in Congress and then the White House. Second, the victor’s party must be “involved in some really large-scale event, which it succeeds in handling. Maybe not elegantly, maybe not comprehensively, but at least gives the impression of having succeeded.”
Hence the need for results. Mr. Guelzo thinks Mr. Trump will attempt to deliver them in three broad areas. “One is a redirection of the entire economy.” He sees the debate over immigration through this lens: “That’s why the whole business over H-1B visas has blown up the way it has, because we’re not really talking about immigration. We’re talking about the economy and who has access to success and growth in the economy.”
The second is “a major reordering of foreign policy.” Mr. Guelzo sees Mr. Trump as following in the footsteps of Robert Taft, who held what is now JD Vance’s Ohio Senate seat from 1939 until his death in 1953. “Taft was one of the last major American politicians who really thought that, like [John] Quincy Adams said, going in search of monsters was a big mistake.” Mr. Guelzo reckons that Mr. Trump is “very serious about disengagement” and “wants to push that clock on foreign policy way, way back, even to before the assumptions and the consensus of the Cold War.”
That will likely mean “an end of the war in Ukraine with some kind of negotiated settlement,” Mr. Guelzo says—but not a surrender to Vladimir Putin. He will claim victory, but “everybody knows the Russians failed militarily.” Mr. Guelzo thinks that failure will curb the imperial appetite of the Russian dictator, whom he assigns a Trump-style nickname: “I have no respect whatsoever for little Mr. Weasel Face. In my mind, he is almost beneath contempt. But I think that so many embarrassing reverses have occurred on his watch, I don’t think he’s going to be eager to invite that kind of thing happening again anytime soon.”
Mr. Trump’s third major ambition is the one he has assigned to Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy’s Department of Government Efficiency. Mr. Guelzo suggests that’s a bit of a misnomer: “DOGE is not so much about the budget. It’s about disempowering the bureaucracy that is fed by the budget, and that’s also a clock-turner.” It would “turn things back to the days of Woodrow Wilson.”
That won’t be easy, Mr. Guelzo says, “because so much of the modern economy is wrapped up with the federal bureaucracy.” Agencies like the Federal Aviation Administration and the Food and Drug Administration serve vital functions, even if their performance is lacking. “If this disempowerment is not very fine-tuned, it’s going to backfire. And the backfire could undo everything that Trump would like to have done in terms of the election having a tectonic result.”
It could be that I am hung up on the "great man theory of history," believing that "fundamental," or "tectonic" changes almost always reflect "the impact of great men, or heroes: highly influential and unique individuals who, due to their natural attributes, such as superior intellect, heroic courage, extraordinary leadership abilities, or divine inspiration, have a decisive historical effect."
I am quoting Wikipedia, there, and I note that Jefferson, Lincoln, and Roosevelt all fit that description. Trump, emphatically, does not. If anyone expects Mr. Trump to be able to achieve the kind of changes that Guelzo outlines in the text quoted above, I think it is almost certain that such expectations will be unrealized. Of course, as Guelzo does note, only time will tell.
Setting aside the "Great Man" theory of change, I do think there is a chance that the 2024 election might turn out to be "tectonic." If that does happen, though, I don't think it will be because president Trump will accomplish those three objectives that Guelzo postulates are needed. Instead, I think it just might be true that this past election, and its aftermath (which "aftermath" will begin in just a few more days), will stimulate ordinary people to return to an active and personal engagement in politics.
If that were to happen, that would be a genuine "tectonic" change, because a lot of us have been standing around since the late 1960's, watching what others are doing - those official, designated drivers of change - and they haven't been doing a good job. We're in peril, as I hope my blog posting yesterday made clear.
It is time for us to take back the wheel, and start steering ourselves out of the skid that is going to take us into oblivion if we don't rise to the occasion. And... we know that's true, don't we? Again, check those pictures featured at the end of my blog posting yesterday, if you have any doubt.
It's time to take back control over our own politics, and if we do, that would be "tectonic," indeed!